Fierce political contest looms for October by-elections

Surrey's political parties are set for a fierce contest in two council by-elections which could change the balance of power on the county council.

The by-elections are set to take place in Camberley West and in Guildford South East on 16th October, due respectively to the death of a Conservative councillor and the resignation of a R4GV (Residents for Guildford and Villages) councillor.

The news of more by-elections will be unwelcome for the Conservatives in particular, who have already suffered defeat in other by-elections over the summer, depriving them of their majority on Surrey County Council.

Surrey County Council had originally been set for all-out elections in May this year, but these were cancelled by the government at the request of the council's Conservative administration, against opposition from other parties on the council, due to the impending reorganisation of local government which is set to see the county council abolished and merged with the district councils within Surrey.

But, despite the all-out elections being cancelled, there have already been four by-elections to the county council this year.

Caused by a combination of deaths and resignations, the by-elections saw the political parties emerge with the Liberal Democrats having hold one seat and gained one seat, the alliance of Residents Parties holding one seat, and Reform UK having gained their second seat on the county council from the Conservatives.

Following these elections the Conservatives, who won 47 in 2021, have been reduced to 40 seats on the 81-seat county council.

The next largest party is the Liberal Democrats, who are on 17 seats following a by-election gain in August, making them the official opposition ahead of the Residents Parties who have 15 seats, with the remainder of seats on the council being accounted for by two Labour, two Greens, two Reform UK, and one independent (formerly Conservative).

In theory the Conservatives could regain a majority on a council if they won both by-elections, but the odds of this seem unfavourable given their losses in the other recent by-elections.

Instead it seems likely as though a fierce battle between the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, and possibly Guildford's localist R4GV party might be on the cards.

The vacant seats are both in areas won by the Liberal Democrats at last year's general elections, and the Liberal Democrats are likely to have high hopes of winning both seats given their mutiple successes in other council by-elections in Surrey this year.

However the other recent by-election winners are Reform UK, who are also likely to be gunning for both seats. The far-right party have already announced their candidate for the by-election in Guildford South East (the first to do so) as sales manager Dale Layman. Reform UK's Guildford chair, Graham Drage, has pitched themselves to voters by saying:

"We are uniquely placed to challenge Net Zero, anti-car policies, and wasteful spending both at the local level, where they are felt most sharply, and nationally, where they are devised."

Nevertheless, the Conservatives are unlikely to let Camberley West go without a fight, and also won two borough council seats within the Guildford South East division in 2023, and so will be hoping return to winning ways in both by-elections. If they can win at least one of the elections then they will regain their majority on the county council.

The Conservatives have also already announced a candidate for Guildford South East, and seem to be trying to frame the election as a straight contest between themselves and the Liberal Democrats, saying:

"It’s difficult to see what relevance national politics have on local issues. The only realistic choice for voters in Guildford is Conservative candidate and Guildford South East resident, Alex Fiuza, who will work hard for residents, or a Lib Dem candidate happy to prop up a disastrous Labour Government."

Guildford localist party R4GV are also known to be intending to contest the Guildford South East seat. The by-election in the division was caused by the resignation of their councillor Fiona Davidson, and the party will naturally be looking to retain it.

Formed in 2019, the party initially had stunning success in elections to Guildford Borough Council that same year, which they then ran in coalition with the Liberal Democrats until two years ago, during which time they also won two seats on the county council in the 2021 elections. However, R4GV lost almost half their borough council seats in the 2023 elections, and are since rumoured to have suffered from a loss of enthusiasm amongst their supporters — indeed the current chair of Reform UK in Guildford is a former R4GV supporter.

Tellingly, when the Guildford Dragon (a Guildford-focused local news website) sought comment from all the political parties in Guildford, R4GV gave no response other than that they were selecting a candidate, while Labour and the Greens did not respond at all, suggesting that they are unlikely to play a major role in the elections.

Regardless of the outcome of the by-elections, the Conservatives are likely to continue running Surrey County Council even if they fail to regain a majority. The opposition parties are too disunited to be able to form an alternative administration at this point in time, though they may well try to temporarily unite to defeat the Conservatives in votes on individual issues in the council chamber.

The Camberley West and Guildford South East are scheduled to take place on Thursday 16th October. Nominations have not yet closed.